Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates May Bounce Around Ahead of Fed Meeting

This Week In A Nutshell

Rates fell last week as financial markets increasingly priced in a rate cut at next Wednesday’s Fed meeting, but an absence of recent jobs and inflation data makes this one particularly difficult to predict. Mortgage rates may continue to bounce around this week ahead of the meeting, especially against a backdrop where President Trump is nearing a decision for the next Fed chair.

Upcoming Attractions

This is usually the week with lots of job market data, but the government shutdown has delayed both the JOLTS and jobs reports.

• ADP employment report (Wednesday): Expected to be right around 0 for November, so could be slightly positive or negative vs 42k for October
• Core PCE inflation index (Friday): Expected to be around 2.8% year over year, around the same level it has been at for the last year. This delayed September data is being released now because of the government shutdown.
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (Friday): Both expected to remain roughly flat for December compared to November
• ISM manufacturing and services indices (Monday/Wednesday): The manufacturing index declined slightly vs expectations for a small rebound with decreases in the new orders and employment components, but an increase in the production component. The services index is expected to rebound slightly for November compared to October.

Last Week’s Highlights

• Retail sales came in softer than expected for September with downward revisions for August. Core producer prices (PPI) were also softer than expected. Together the two seemingly suggest slightly higher odds of a rate cut at next Wednesday’s Fed meeting, but these are delayed data releases from September, both are volatile series, and neither are key for the Fed’s decision making.

Diving a Little Deeper: November Economic Data

We now know that there will not be October CPI inflation and unemployment rate data. Job creation data for October will still be collected and released along with the November jobs report on December 18. With the government shutdown lasting through the first part of November, one remaining question is how November’s economic statistics (which will be released with a delay in December in many instances) will be affected.

• Inflation data is being collected over a shorter than normal period of time in November and only over the latter part of the month after reopening. That means fewer prices than usual will be collected, potentially resulting in more volatile data. Not having data from early November could also bias prices lower as holiday sales kick in toward the latter part of the month.
• October and November’s job creation data should not be affected by the government shutdown. These are collected via the establishment survey and businesses are able to send high quality data no matter when they send the data. However, this data will be affected by the DOGE’s deferred resignation program, where many federal employees were officially terminated on October 1, and by the later-than-usual Thanksgiving holiday this year, creating a shorter holiday season.
• The November unemployment rate data is being collected via a household survey one week later than originally scheduled, but since the original schedule was earlier than historical norms, the delay should not affect the quality of the data by much.

Redfin Housing Market Reports

• Delistings Jump 28% as Sellers Pull Homes Off Market Rather Than Settle For Low Prices
  • The number of home listings that were pulled off the market rose to a historically high level in September.
  • Sellers are delisting because so many listings are going stale; many homeowners would rather stay put than accept a low offer. The increase in delistings is propping up home prices.
  • Nationwide, 5.5% of total listings were delisted in September, the highest September rate in a decade.
  • 1 in 5 homes that are delisted are re-listed.
  • Sellers who had owned their home for under 5 years are most likely to pull them off the market after listing.
  • Delistings–and stale listings–are most common in Florida.
• West Palm Beach Tops 10-Year Luxury Home Price Growth as Traditional Giants Like New York Lag Behind
  • Luxury home sale prices in West Palm Beach, FL have jumped 187.3% to a median $4.04 million over the past decade—the fastest growth among major U.S. metros.
  • The Sun Belt is home to 8 of the 10 major metros with the fastest growth in luxury home prices since 2015.
  • New York has posted the smallest price growth among major metros in the past 10 years, rising 15.4%—well below the national rise of 82.5%.

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