Jobs report expected to show weakness in labor market

Jobs report expected to show weakness in labor market

U.S. job growth has almost entirely ground to a standstill, according to government data released Friday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August, well below expectations for 75,000. Employment data for June was revised to show a net loss for that month, the BLS said, though July’s figures were revised slightly higher.

Taken together, the U.S. has added 598,000 jobs so far this year, compared with 1,144,000 for the first eight months of 2024. The BLS said Friday that the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3%, a level not seen since Sept. 2017 outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The numbers added to growing concerns that President Donald Trump’s policies have pushed the economy toward a problematic mix of low growth and stubborn inflation.

More than one-quarter of all unemployed workers have now gone without a job for more than six months, the highest level since June 2016.

"The jobs engine that has been integral to U.S. economic growth defying expectations for the past four years is stalling," Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a note. "Weakness remains widespread across industries, making it difficult to drive a bounce-back in the near term."

Major U.S. stock indexes turned negative Friday after briefly rising to fresh record highs when trading opened at 9:30 a.m., suggesting investors are growing more concerned about the state of the economy despite the prospect of lower interest rates. When companies are able to borrow money more cheaply, their profit margins tend to improve — assuming spending growth holds up.

Trump took office promising to turbocharge the U.S. economy. While it is still in solid shape by most metrics, it had begun to lose momentum at the conclusion of the Biden administration.

Instead, Trump’s push to impose tariffs on imports into the U.S. — alongside his aggressive efforts to eliminate federal spending, many of which continue to face legal challenges — have sparked a wave of uncertainty that has made it difficult for businesses to hire more people.

Those tariffs have also fueled ongoing concerns about rising prices. While inflation has dropped significantly from the highs seen following pandemic reopenings in 2022, many measures show it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

That has put the central bank, which has faced unrelenting pressure by Trump to reduce interest rates, in a bind. Lower rates tend to translate into increased economic activity — but can come at the cost of hotter price growth.

“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have lowered rates long ago,” Trump said on social media Friday following the jobs report’s release. “As usual, he’s ‘Too Late!’”

So far, the Fed has refused to cut the rates over fears about the impact Trump’s tariffs will have on inflation. Now, investors believe the ongoing run of weak jobs reports will force its hand when it meets later this month to make its next interest-rate decision.

“The August jobs report should hopefully spur on two important actions,” Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul said in a statement. “First, a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Second, concluding tariff actions and trade deals to provide businesses with the certainty they need to hire, invest in new capital equipment, and realign supply chains. Manufacturing will be treading water until we see those changes.”

Friday’s report was the first since Trump fired the agency’s head, Erika McEntarfer, almost immediately after the previous jobs report's release over accusations of releasing inaccurate data. It’s a charge that mainstream economists have dismissed while raising grave concerns that McEntarfer’s dismissal risks politicizing a nonpartisan statistical agency.

On Thursday night, Trump said the “real numbers” for jobs would come out “next year,” without elaborating. On Friday morning, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said U.S. economic data would get better after staff changes.

A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s new choice to head the BLS, E.J. Antoni, has received criticism for how he has interpreted economic data. Before his nomination was announced, he called for pausing the monthly jobs report, something economists said could disrupt the global economy because investors rely on timely reports about U.S. jobs data to make decisions.

Trump allies have rallied behind Antoni's nomination.

“E.J. Antoni is one of the sharpest economic minds in the nation — a fearless truth-teller who grasps that sound economics must serve the interests of American families, not globalist elites,” Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, said in a statement. Antoni, who is awaiting Senate confirmation, is chief economist at the Heritage Foundation.

Other signs of a stagnant job market piled up ahead of Friday’s report. On Tuesday, the BLS reported hiring and firing rates were essentially unchanged in August from the prior month. It also reported job openings fell in July to the lowest in 10 months, though a separate measure tracked by the job site Indeed showed new job openings have been rising gradually since mid-July.

The private payroll provider ADP reported Thursday that just 54,000 jobs were added in August, weaker than estimates. Challenger, Grey and Christmas consultancy said layoff announcements last month had surged 39% from July, while employers announced plans to add just 1,494 jobs in August, the lowest total for the month since Challenger began tracking hiring plans in 2009.

Alongside the impact from federal layoffs and spending cuts, more employers cited economic and market factors — including the effect of Trump’s tariffs — to explain the slowdown in hiring, as well as store closings and bankruptcies, it said.

“September is typically when we begin to see large seasonal hiring announcements, which foretell how retailers expect the holiday season to go. Coming off the lowest August on record for hiring plans, it may be a troubling sign,” Challenger said.

Trump administration officials and their allies have suggested job growth is increasing for native-born Americans, but multiple analysts say the data behind those assertions are mostly the result of statistical quirks. The unemployment rate for native-born Americans stood at 4.6%, in August, the highest level in eight years.

“It seems likely that the Trump administration will use Friday’s jobs report to continue to argue that their immigration policies are creating job market opportunities for U.S.-born workers, but this claim is false and based on a misreading of data from the household survey,” Ben Zipperer, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, wrote in a blog, referring to a survey used by the BLS to calculate population estaimtes.

“If anything, the job market for U.S.-born workers is worse so far in 2025 than it was in preceding years,” Zipperer said.

Rob Wile

Rob Wile is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist covering breaking business stories for NBCNews.com.

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